Research Programme

Financial Services

The Future of Banking and Payments
a 2026 perspective

Five structural vectors are converging to reshape global banking and payments through 2030. This programme maps the forces, quantifies the stakes, and equips senior leaders to act before the window narrows.

Programme

Where banking stands in 2026

The global financial system has crossed a critical threshold — transitioning from a decade of digital interface optimisation into an era of autonomous financial execution and cryptographic value transfer.

Passive spread income no longer subsidises operational inefficiency. The traditional bank account is being usurped by the cryptographically secure digital identity wallet. AI has evolved beyond chatbots into autonomous agents executing complex financial strategies with millisecond latency.

This research programme — authored by Clint Sookermany with deep research support — maps the causal relationships between emerging regulatory frameworks, sovereign digital currency initiatives, and autonomous systems, forecasting the restructuring of market power between incumbents, fintechs, and technology giants.

Five vectors

The forces reshaping financial services

VECTOR I

Pervasive and Agentic AI

AI has crossed from generative experimentation into autonomous execution. The 10x bank — where one human manages a fleet of AI agents — is now visible in Q1 2026 earnings. The competitive differentiator is proprietary data architecture, governance, and speed of organisational adaptation.

  • Six major US banks cut 15,000 roles while posting $47B profit (+18% YoY)
  • JPMorgan: 250,000 employees on LLM Suite; 500+ AI use cases in production
  • Multi-agent compliance systems reducing AML investigation time by 50%

VECTOR II

The Global Open Finance Regulatory Matrix

Three regulatory blocs — the US (Dodd-Frank 1033), the EU (PSD3/FIDA), and the UK (Smart Data) — are converging on mandated open finance. Each brings distinct competitive implications for incumbents and challengers alike.

  • US: CFPB 1033 final rule live; bank compliance deadlines from April 2026
  • EU: PSD3 and Financial Data Access regulation entering trilogue
  • UK: Smart Data extending open banking to pensions, insurance, investments

VECTOR III

Programmable Money and Next-Gen Rails

Stablecoins are institutionalising under the GENIUS Act and MiCA. B2B treasury is moving to asset-agnostic settlement. CBDCs are repositioning as sovereign anchors rather than retail instruments.

  • GENIUS Act providing federal stablecoin licensing framework
  • Tokenised deposit pilots at major clearing banks reaching production
  • Cross-border CBDC corridors (mBridge, Project Dunbar) in live pilot

VECTOR IV

Digital Wallets and Identity Reconfiguration

eIDAS 2.0 mandates European Digital Identity Wallets by 2027. Cryptographic keys are replacing the traditional bank account as the anchor of the customer relationship. Zero-knowledge proofs threaten to disintermediate KYC entirely.

  • eIDAS 2.0: EUDI wallet mandate for all EU member states by 2027
  • Apple, Google wallet integrations expanding into identity and credentials
  • ZK-proof identity verification pilots in regulated financial services

VECTOR V

Market Restructuring — Winners, Losers, and Survivors

The convergence of these vectors is redistributing market power. Tech giants are ascending through invisible banking. Balance Sheet as a Service models are emerging. Fintechs are stratifying into infrastructure and interface layers.

  • Apple Card, Google Pay evolving from interface to full financial platform
  • Banking-as-a-Service revenue pools shifting to licensed infrastructure plays
  • Top-10 bank market cap concentration accelerating since 2024

Audience

Built for the senior team carrying the AI mandate

This programme is designed for CxOs, board members, and senior transformation leaders in banking, payments, and financial market infrastructure who need to understand the structural forces reshaping their industry — and act on them within a defined window.

Chief Executive Officers and Group Boards
Chief Technology and Chief Digital Officers
Chief Risk Officers and Heads of Model Risk
Heads of Strategy and Corporate Development
Chief Operating Officers and COO-office teams
Private Equity operating partners with FS portfolio

Engage

Three ways to access this programme

READ

Intelligence Report

Subscribe to the free weekly briefing for structured summaries of each vector as they publish.

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ATTEND

Industry Briefing

A half-day briefing for your senior team on the five vectors and what they mean for your institution.

Book a Briefing

COMMISSION

Bespoke Deep-Dive

A tailored engagement mapping the five vectors to your specific institution, competitive position, and regulatory frame.

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START THE CONVERSATION

The 18-month window is narrowing — act now or respond later

Senior leaders who understand these five vectors today will define the winners of 2030. Those who wait will be responding to someone else's strategy.